Breeding Algo History | ZEDGE
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Breeding Algo History

ZED is constantly tweaking the breeding algorithm. We'll keep a log of the evolution of here:

Breeding Algo 1.0:

  1. Only BA is passed down and only from direct parents

  2. Variance and Distance Preference were 100% randomly assigned

  3. The general Breeding Algo equation took an average of the parents BA – solid degradation with natural distribution of results around that, rarely exceeding the parents average.

  4. Using our tool, it’s roughly Ave(Parents BA) – 15 …add natural distribution around that with 3SDs pretty close to the parents average.

And by contrast, what we know (and in some cases think) about 2.0

Breeding Algo 2.0:

  1. All three traits (BA, VAR, DP) are used in the new breeding algo.

  2. Ancestor traits can be used in the equation.

  3. There is far less degradation in BA, even before accounting for ancestor pulls.

  4. The correlation between parents and offspring are strongest with BA, then DP, with VAR a distant third.

  5. The algo aims to curb results on the high and low end. IE There’s a much better chance two bad horses have a better foal then either parent than with two good parents.

  6. Using our metrics, a rough equation looks something like BA = Ave(SireBAinput,MareBAinput) -5. DP = Ave (SireDPinput, DamDPinput) – 5. VAR = Ave(SireVARinput, DamDPinput) -7. Where 1) the input has some X chance of being pulled from an ancestor and 2) the subtraction slides higher the higher the total, and lower the lower the total.

  7. My best guess at this point, based on the delta between parents and offspring BA between legendary offspring (no ancestor pulls) and exclusives, is that each side with ancestors has a 10% chance of pulling an ancestor.

  8. Based on my research, I believe that each trait is pulled from ancestors (or not) individually. As in, an entire ancestor isn’t pulled. This theory would give you about a ~50-60% chance of getting at least ONE trait pulled from an ancestor (if ancestors on both sides of the breed), and a 1 in a Million chance of hitting all 6 traits.

  9. Frankly I have no idea how to tell how Zed selects the ancestor within the tree or what the odds are within the ancestor tree of getting a specific ancestor. I can’t comprehend how we’ll ever have enough data to even approximate that with how often traits align and match others in the tree.

Breeding Algo 3.0 (current):

  1. BA is completely removed from the breeding algo.

  2. DP and VAR, including ancestry rolls, are passed identically as they were in 2.0

  3. The foal’s starting level floor and ceiling are set based on the average of the parents starting level and it’s resulting breed type. The actual starting level within that range has a lot of randomness to it, with more results landing within 50-100 levels of the floor.

  4. DP and VAR are applied, absorb their share of the starting level, and BA backfills the rest of the foal’s starting level.

  5. A "donkey roll" becomes more common as you move lower in the breed types from Elite to Pacer. This level roll breaks through the soft floor and typically lands in the 20-25 range.